New dementia tool predicts when symptoms will start: ‘Want to know?’

Australian researchers say they have invented a first-of-its-kind tool that can accurately predict when a person will first experience symptoms of dementia based on their current age and interview responses.

The Florey Dementia Index was created using neuropsychological data from three long-term studies that tracked nearly 3,800 participants who went from being healthy to being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease. The researchers who designed the index predicted when these adults would develop symptoms of dementia based on data from their asymptomatic time, then compared the estimates with actual ages of diagnosis.

“Our test now needs to be validated prospectively, but it could potentially be used as a screening tool for people over 60 who have no symptoms of mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer’s disease, especially for those at risk,” Yijun said. Pan, a researcher at the Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health in Australia.

Pan wrote an article published Wednesday in JAMA Network Open that revealed the results of the model, which had a margin of error of about 18 months for mild cognitive impairment and eight months for dementia.

The tool relies on patients’ scores on the Clinical Dementia Assessment, which assesses memory and judgment skills, plus engagement in hobbies and other lifestyle factors, based on an interview with the patient and their caregiver.

Dr. Liron Sinvani, Northwell’s director of inpatient geriatric services, told The Post that the CDR is “pretty comprehensive” but “very rarely used in routine clinical practice, where providers opt for a shorter assessment.”

“So that kind of calls into question the practicality of that [dementia tool]”, Sinvani said. “Although there are electronic versions of this assessment now, the person performing this assessment requires training and can take 20 minutes, sometimes more.”

The Florey Dementia Index is not available to healthcare professionals, nor has it been tested in clinical settings. Researchers hope it will eventually give patients more time to make decisions about their care.

Nearly 7 million Americans have been diagnosed with dementia, which slowly erodes memory, thinking skills and the ability to perform basic tasks.

There is no cure for dementia or Alzheimer’s, but some medications can help alleviate or temporarily slow some symptoms.

“Dementia is a chronic progressive disease that is irreversible at this point. There is no meaningful treatment that can change the course of the disease,” Sinvani said.

“So the question is,” Sinvani continued, “would someone want to know if or when they’re going to develop dementia, and is that information that might help someone, or might it make them more nervous?”